Springbok coach Jacques Nienaber and national director of rugby Rassie Erasmus have spent a lot of time in the buildup to the Rugby World Cup talking up the threat posed by Scotland, but now they’ve gone and blown it.
The Boks have moved to Corsica for a final short training camp ahead of the World Cup, which they start against Scotland in what is viewed as a crucial Pool game in Marseille on 10 September. The South African players have no doubt heard a lot about the Scots from their coaches, but now there are no games in between, so they will hear even more.
And after the thumping win over the All Blacks in London at the weekend, maybe another talk about Scotland, and the dangers they could pose, is necessary. For the win against New Zealand has done what such an emphatic victory over a noted opponent would do - it has everyone, meaning the South African supporters and public at large and the media, jumping a few steps ahead of themselves and going beyond the difficult Pool phase in tournament outlook.
GEORGIA CAN’T BE EQUATED WITH THE BOKS
When you’ve just destroyed the All Blacks, there is no denying the favourite status you will take into a game against a team that is ranked fifth in the world that is really a lightweight version of New Zealand and which struggled in the first half at the weekend against Georgia. Some of the Scottish media were waxing lyrical in praising their team’s second half performance, but even they would know that Georgia, good though they were, cannot be equated with the Springboks.
Fortunately the Bok squad has enough experience in it not to be complacent, because the Twickenham performance, coupled with the record win over Wales the week before, did negate all the misgivings that may have been built up by Messrs Erasmus and Nienaber about the dangers of having the Scots as first Pool opponents.
The Scots always knew they’d be up against it first up, so if there are teams with misgivings about their first Pool games it should be New Zealand, England and Wales. The Kiwis because the Twickenham experience would have been a harrowing confidence blow to them, regardless of coach Ian Foster’s attempts to look for positives.
HOSTS LOOK STRONG
And they are playing France. With 11 days now to go to the World Cup opener between the hosts and the All Blacks in Paris, perhaps it is time to take a global view and do what Nienaber and Erasmus won’t be doing by looking at who has emerged as the favourites just based on the form shown in the warmup phase, or Summer Series as the northerners would have it.
With respect to Ireland, who were under-strength when they only just squeaked a win against Samoa at the weekend, right now you’d have to say the money should be on a France/South Africa final. For those two teams have been by far the most impressive over the past month.
Yes, France did lose to Scotland first up. But that was a French second string team. They actually did well to come so close to beating the team ranked fifth in the world playing full strength at Murrayfield. The French were much better the following week against the same opponents in St Etienne and looked formidable on Sunday, when they thumped a game and tenacious Australia in their full World Cup dress rehearsal in Paris.
The Boks we’ve written enough about, and their last two games say it all. The spreading of the selection net phase that Nienaber was busy with in the early weeks of the international season has paid dividends, and while the pack picks itself, he has some positive selection dilemmas to deal with when it comes to the backline.
SA BACKS PLAYING WITH CONFIDENCE
It was the forwards that paved the way for the win over New Zealand, but there is also no denying the confidence that is flowing through the backline players. And suddenly there appear to be extra options in just about every position. For instance, if Andre Esterhuizen played ahead of the experienced Damian de Allende in the big games at the World Cup, would there be any complaints.
The only potential problem area is flyhalf, where Manie Libbok has no specialist backup. Handre Pollard is fit again according to Nienaber, but there has to be an injury for him to feature in what would be his third World Cup. The problem with Libbok, and what has caused concern, is not that he lacks ability, but that he is erratic, which by definition means he also has good games. It is the bad ones everyone worries about as you never know when that might arrive.
Nonetheless, his confident, poised performance in his first start against a top four team should certainly have done wonders for both his confidence and the confidence of the Bok supporters.
Of course, with the Bok pack battering their opponents into submission, you could argue that there wasn’t the pressure on Libbok, both in kicking for posts and general play, that there will be in a close quarterfinal or semifinal, but for now there is no argument against the contention he adds to the Bok game.
And from an attack perspective, he is better than Pollard, who had the precocious attacking talents he showed when he first burst onto the scene coached out of him.
DON’T WRITE OFF KIWIS BUT THEY ARE NOW OUTSIDERS
Going into the World Cup it looks like South Africa and France as favourites, and perhaps even in that order, but what about the rest? There’s a line being peddled in the UK that the New Zealand defeat means there are only three contenders for the World Cup, but you write off the All Blacks at their peril. Their pride will be dented, but they have too much individual talent in their ranks to write off their chances in a one-off playoff game. Like the Stormers in the United Rugby Championship, they have the ability to kill a close game by scoring three tries in 10 minutes.
Yet after Twickenham they are now outsiders, with Ireland being third favourite. They weren’t good against Samoa with their second stringers which poses questions about their depth. They certainly don’t have the reservoir of talent the Boks have, but we knew that. Their big performance with the first string team was the win against England, but even in that game they weren’t particularly flush.
The caveat though is that they’ve been without their regular skipper and flyhalf general Johnny Sexton, who was named as captain of the 33-man Irish squad on Sunday night. They have a more gentle start to the tournament than the other top contenders and can grow into the tournament in the way the Boks did after their initial blip against the Kiwis in 2019.
As for the rest? Well, there is no rest when it comes to contenders. If England made the final like they did in 2019 it would be beyond a miracle given the way they have blundered through the warmup phase, and it says something about them that their coach and some of the English media were talking about them having made improvements against Fiji.
But they lost the game, at headquarters, to Fiji, who are now shaping up as a major obstacle to Australia and Wales in their Pool. None of those teams are proper contenders for the World Cup though, and neither are Argentina, who nonetheless should be backed now to go quite deep into the tournament, as they did last time it was in France in 2007 (they made the semifinal).
PICK WALLABIES TO BE CONTENDERS - IN 2027
On the subject of Australia, let's be contrary to the general view and admit that there may actually be some method to the perceived madness of the Wallaby coach Eddie Jones. The Wallabies were well beaten by France on Sunday, but the young team showed enough to suggest that if they stay together for the full cycle they could be proper contenders when Australia host the World Cup in 2027. Which is really what Eddie is working towards. That and the British and Irish Lions series in 2025.
Right now though, for this World Cup, the smart money should be on South Africa or France, with the perennial World Cup chokers, Ireland, needing to make an early statement in the tournament if they are to get backing.
WEEKEND RWC WARMUP RESULTS
South Africa 35 New Zealand 7
Italy 42 Japan 21
England 22 Fiji 30
Scotland 33 Georgia 6
Ireland 17 Samoa 13
France 41 Australia 17
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